China's plan to boost consumption by encouraging trade-ins has yet to show results

Published On Sep 12, 2024, 7:10 PM

China's initiative to enhance consumer spending through a trade-in program has not yet yielded significant outcomes following its announcement in late July. Though the government allocated approximately 300 billion yuan to subsidize trade-ins for cars and appliances, executives from various companies report a lack of concrete incentives from this program. The EU Chamber of Commerce in China highlighted that local governments are only beginning to detail these trade-in policies. Analysts predict that this scheme will only marginally benefit retail sales, with estimates suggesting it could support about 0.3% of retail sales in 2023. Companies like Otis and Kone also expressed cautious optimism for future opportunities as the rollout of this initiative progresses.

Stock Forecasts

Given that the trade-in program is struggling to gain traction and may not have a significant immediate impact on consumer spending, companies reliant on consumer discretionary spending, especially in the appliance or automotive sectors, may experience continued weakness in sales. Therefore, investors might consider adopting a cautious stance with respect to stocks in these sectors.

With the potential long-term growth in the secondhand goods market as the policy unfolds, companies like ATRenew might stand to benefit in the future. However, the short-term impact remains uncertain. For investors, this might signal a moderate opportunity to watch but could indicate a negative perception for immediate trading.

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Several major cities and provinces have only in the last few weeks announced details on how the trade-in program would work for residents.

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