A larger Fed cut wouldn't spark worry — but a smaller one might: Morning Brief

Published On Sep 17, 2024, 6:00 AM

The article discusses the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates, focusing on the debate between a larger cut of 50 basis points versus a smaller cut of 25 basis points. Analysts suggest that a larger cut would not provoke market panic as it is already anticipated, while a smaller cut could have negative implications, such as tightening financial conditions and impacting economic growth. Economists from various firms point out that a 25 basis point cut could lead markets to reassess rates upward, negatively affecting consumer spending and sentiment. Goldman Sachs presents a bullish outlook for the S&P 500, predicting it could reach 6,000 in the next year, contingent on sustained economic growth driven by the Fed's actions.

Stock Forecasts

The S&P 500 index is poised to benefit from a larger Federal Reserve rate cut (50 basis points) due to sustained economic growth expectations. However, if the Fed opts for a smaller cut (25 basis points), it may invert market expectation leading to potential downward pressure on equity prices.

With the anticipation of a larger rate cut, interest-sensitive sectors such as consumer discretionary and technology could particularly benefit, likely driving growth and investment in these areas.

Conversely, a smaller than expected rate cut could trigger market corrections and increased volatility, particularly in financial sectors that rely on interest rate spreads.

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