China’s Stock Markets Rebound on Promises to Help Businesses

Published On Oct 14, 2024, 3:57 AM

Stock prices in China increased by 1.9% on Monday following government assurances that it would strengthen the private sector amid ongoing economic weakness, highlighted by reports of falling prices and low consumer inflation. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an indicated plans to borrow more to support local governments and stabilize the real estate market, while Luo Wen, director of the State Administration for Market Regulation, promised not to impose excessive fines on companies. Despite these positive signals, the lack of specific details on stimulus measures and the ongoing deflationary pressures remain major concerns for the economy.

Stock Forecasts

The recent increase in the CSI 300 index indicates positive sentiment among investors due to government support for the private sector. However, the underlying economic concerns such as low consumer confidence and deflationary trends may dampen long-term prospects. Overall, short-term engagement with Chinese stocks might yield gains as reforms are executed.

Given ongoing economic challenges and the focus on government spending without concrete measures, investors should be cautious. While immediate market reactions may be favorable, the persistent deflation and low consumer confidence could lead to potential downturns in longer investment strategies.

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In his opening remarks on Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an laid out four measures, starting with increasing support for local governments in resolving debt risks.

The finance minister said Beijing would sell bonds to supplement spending and help banks but did not detail how much.

Analyst projections for how much fiscal stimulus is needed range from around 2 trillion yuan ($283.1 billion) to more than 10 trillion yuan.