American consumers see debt delinquency risk rising, higher long-term inflation: NY Fed
Published On Oct 15, 2024, 3:40 PM
According to a recent report from the New York Federal Reserve, American consumers are increasingly worried about their ability to make debt payments, with the likelihood of delinquency climbing to 14.2%. This marks the highest level since April 2020. Concerns about long-term inflation are also growing, with expectations rising for inflation rates of 2.7% over three years and 2.9% over five years. Despite these worries, consumers do not expect significant job losses in the coming year, although the probability of leaving a job voluntarily has increased. The Fed's recent interest rate decisions also play a role in these evolving economic perceptions, as lower rates are being anticipated in light of recent data.
Stock Forecasts
XLP
Negative
With consumers growing concerned about debt delinquency and inflation, sectors related to consumer finance might see tightening credit and increased provisions for loan losses, impacting their profitability. Conversely, companies involved in inflation hedges or consumer staples might benefit.
XLF
Negative
The Bank sector may face challenges with rising delinquency rates potentially leading to a cautious approach to lending, which could negatively impact profitability.
GDX
Positive
In contrast, sectors that benefit from sustained inflation, such as commodities or real assets, may see gains as consumers seek to hedge against rising costs.
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