Polymarket and PredictIt Gain Bets and Split From Polls

Published On Oct 15, 2024, 8:11 AM

The article discusses the current state of the 2024 U.S. presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. While traditional polls show a close contest, prediction markets indicate that Trump has a significant lead over Harris, with platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt giving Trump odds of winning between 54% and 56%. This contrasts with polling data that has Harris ahead by a small margin. Experts suggest that prediction markets may be more reflective of real-time developments in the race compared to traditional polling methods.

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Given the significant lead that Trump seems to have in prediction markets compared to polls, this could create a positive sentiment towards assets that could benefit from a Trump presidency, particularly in sectors like defense, energy, and healthcare, which often see favorable policy under Republican leadership.

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