Stock market expert compares 2024 election to tumultuous time when the challenger prevailed over incumbent
Published On Oct 31, 2024, 7:29 AM
CFRA Research's chief strategist, Sam Stovall, draws parallels between the upcoming 2024 elections and the 1968 elections. He notes that the market has risen over 5% since July 31, historically favoring the incumbent party's re-election chances. However, he highlights the unique conditions of the current cycle, such as dissatisfaction with inflation and immigration issues, which could lead to a challenger victory, similar to the outcome in 1968. A Bloomberg survey indicates that respondents believe a Trump win could accelerate the current market rally, while a Harris win might hinder it. The election remains highly competitive, focusing on key swing states.
Stock Forecasts
SPY
Positive
Should Trump win the election, the market is likely to continue its rally, benefitting sectors and stocks that favor conservative economic policies. Conversely, a Harris win may lead to market uncertainty and potentially steep declines due to anticipated regulatory changes.
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