10-year Treasury yield rises with all eyes on the U.S. election

Published On Nov 5, 2024, 7:28 PM

Treasury yields have risen as investors await the outcome of a close presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 7 basis points to 4.6% amid speculation that a Republican victory could lead to tax cuts and fiscal policies that might increase inflation and widen the budget deficit. If Trump wins, yields could rise to approximately 4.5%, while a Harris victory might lower them to around 4%. The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates soon, which may influence bond market dynamics further.

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Stock Forecasts

TLTView TLT chart on TradingView

Negative

Expect bond yields to increase if a Republican sweep occurs due to anticipated fiscal measures from a Trump administration. However, if Harris wins with a divided Congress, yields may stabilize or decrease.

BNDView BND chart on TradingView

Negative

A Republican sweep would likely introduce volatility and concerns over inflation, leading to further risk-off sentiment in the bond market, negatively affecting long-duration bonds.

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