The Trump trade vs. the Harris trade: The areas of the market that could move big depending on who wins
Published On Nov 5, 2024, 2:11 PM
The recent presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is expected to have significant implications for financial markets. Strategists suggest a contested election could negatively impact U.S. equities, while a clear outcome might lead to shifts in sector performances. If Trump wins, financials and cryptocurrencies could rally; however, a Harris win could benefit consumer goods and renewable sectors, as her policies are perceived as less detrimental. Popular strategies are being reassessed in light of these potential outcomes, especially as markets have reacted to polling shifts favoring Harris.
Stock Forecasts
XLF
Positive
If Trump wins, financial stocks and cryptocurrencies may see upward movements due to favorable policy expectations for those sectors. Conversely, if Harris emerges victorious, consumer goods and renewables might perform better, as investors position for a potential decrease in tariffs and support for first-time homebuyers.
XHB
Negative
With polling indicating a strong lead for Harris, stocks tied to Trump policies such as financials may decline as the market adjusts expectations. The homebuilders sector might also suffer if higher rates persist under a Trump administration, making housing less affordable.
DJT
Negative
The speculations around Trump Media & Technology Group suggest a binary trading scenario where the stock could crash if Trump loses, thus it might be valuable for short-selling.
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