Trump tariffs could intensify US trucking industry slump, experts say

Published On Dec 13, 2024, 6:08 AM

The article discusses how President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs on countries like China, Mexico, and Canada are projected to negatively impact the U.S. transportation industry, particularly the trucking sector, which is already facing a recession. Experts warn that these tariffs will raise prices, leading to decreased demand for freight and exacerbating problems for transportation companies like J.B. Hunt, UPS, Union Pacific, and Canadian Pacific. This situation mirrors past effects when Trump imposed tariffs during his previous term, which initiated a trucking recession that lasted throughout much of 2019. The article highlights the interconnectedness of North American trade, with potential retaliatory tariffs posing additional risks to the industry.

Stock Forecasts

Given the imminent threat of tariffs and their historical impact on the trucking industry, the outlook for companies within this sector looks grim. Transportation companies like J.B. Hunt and UPS may face reduced demand and revenue from an increase in costs passed on to consumers. Additionally, the ongoing trucking recession suggests these firms may struggle to maintain profitability amidst changing trade policies.

For Union Pacific, the complications from potential tariffs and their impact on trans-border trade could also hinder growth opportunities, especially with connections to Canada and Mexico. The firm's efforts to manage costs will be critically challenged in this scenario.

UPS, as a major player in the logistics and delivery of goods, is also likely to feel the economic strain from increased tariffs, which are anticipated to decrease overall freight demand as consumer prices rise. This increased operational pressure could lead to downward pressure on their stock price.

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