Why a dramatic jump in small business optimism is about more than small business: Chart of the Week

Published On Dec 14, 2024, 7:42 AM

The NFIB's small business optimism index saw a significant surge in November, marking its largest monthly gain since 1980. This increase is attributed to the positive sentiment following Donald Trump's election. The optimism indicates potential changes in hiring and spending among small businesses, which could have broader market effects. Notably, companies that generate substantial revenue from small businesses, such as Meta, United Rentals, and Shopify, could benefit substantially from this increased optimism. However, while expectations have risen, actual plans for increased spending among small businesses have only shown modest growth.

Stock Forecasts

Given the increased optimism among small businesses, we expect companies heavily reliant on small business income to perform well as spending potentially increases. Stocks such as Shopify and United Rentals are poised for growth due to this sentiment.

As large tech companies like Meta also benefit from the small business sector, there may be a resulting uplift in their stock performance driven by improving business conditions in this segment.

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