Fed’s preferred inflation gauge in November was lower than expected, but remains elevated

Published On Dec 20, 2024, 10:54 AM

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, reported an increase of only 0.1% in November, below expectations. Year-over-year, the PCE index rose to 2.4%, also less than predicted. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, similarly increased by 0.1% and is up 2.8% year-over-year. Despite these lower-than-expected inflation figures, they still exceed the Fed's target of 2%. Personal consumption spending rose less than forecasted, while personal incomes saw a decline. This data comes following a recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, indicating the central bank's careful approach to managing inflation while supporting economic growth.

Stock Forecasts

Given the recent lower-than-expected inflation data, there is potential for continued investor interest in growth sectors, particularly technology and consumer discretionary, which can benefit from lower interest rates. However, the persistence of inflation above target levels indicates ongoing economic uncertainty, which may pressure sectors sensitive to interest rate changes.

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November's Personal Consumption Expenditures report is the latest data point that will shape future monetary policy.