PCE Inflation, the Fed’s Preferred Measure, Sped Up in November

Published On Dec 20, 2024, 8:40 AM

The latest data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index shows a 2.4% increase from a year earlier, which is higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Core inflation, stripping out food and fuel, remained stable at 2.8%. This slight uptick in inflation raises concerns for the Federal Reserve as they consider future interest rate cuts. Despite this, consumer spending remains strong as holiday shopping picks up. The Fed has cut interest rates three times this year, but future cuts may happen more slowly due to persistent inflation and a stabilizing job market.

Stock Forecasts

XLY

Positive

The persistent inflation and strong consumer spending indicate a slightly troubled economic environment where investment in consumer-related sectors could face headwinds. However, companies in retail or consumer goods, particularly those that perform well during holiday seasons, may experience growth. Furthermore, ETFs that focus on consumer discretionaries may benefit from continued strong spending during the holidays.

Related News

The American economy grew at a healthy 3.1% annual clip from July through September, propelled by vigorous consumer spending and an uptick in exports, the government said in an upgrade to its previous estimate. Third-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product — the economy's output of goods and services — accelerated from the April-July rate of 3% and continued to look sturdy despite high interest rates, the Commerce Department said Thursday. GDP growth has now topped 2% in eight of the last nine quarters.

XLY
LMT

How the Fed's decision on interest rates affects savings products, various types of loans, and credit cards.

XLY
SPY
XLF

The Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to its easing cycle, according to the latest dot plot projections.