Fed minutes show policymakers see immigration, tariff shifts creating inflation uncertainty

Published On Jan 8, 2025, 9:40 PM

The Federal Reserve's recent minutes indicate that policymakers are uncertain about inflation due to potential policy changes regarding tariffs and immigration under President-elect Trump's administration. Although the Fed implemented a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.25%-4.5%, concerns have grown over rising inflation, which stands at 2.7% for CPI and 2.4% for the PCE index. The minutes reflect a consensus that uncertainty surrounding new policies poses risks to the inflation outlook, and there is speculation that the disinflation process may have stalled. Most participants noted that upside risks to inflation have increased.

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The uncertainty surrounding the new administration's policies could lead to market volatility, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to inflation, such as consumer goods and services. Investors may want to prepare for possible upward pressures on prices, affecting consumer spending and corporate earnings.

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Almost all Federal Reserve officials agreed in their last meeting that "upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased" due in part to the "likely effects" of expected changes in trade and immigration policies.

If Trump decides to declare a national economic emergency to impose a series of universal tariffs, his trade plans could quickly attract legal challenges that will surely mean even more uncertainty for importers.

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