Which Interest Rate Should You Care About?

Published On Feb 14, 2025, 9:00 AM

The article discusses the significance of the 10-year Treasury yield, which currently fluctuates between 4.8% and 4.2%, compared to a historical average of 2.9% over the last 20 years. This elevated yield may dampen enthusiasm among entrepreneurs and investors, posing challenges for the current administration push for lower rates. The yield influences various financial aspects, including mortgages and corporate debt, and is shaped by current economic policies and conditions, particularly those of the Trump administration.

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Negative

The elevated 10-year Treasury yield could lead to a slowdown in economic activity due to higher borrowing costs, which may negatively impact stock market performance and corporate earnings. Given the current political climate and focus on lowering rates, volatility in this space is likely.

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Investors are now betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just once more this year, a drastic shift in expectations since late 2024.

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President Donald Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday and commented that the U.S. debt may be smaller than thought because of unspecified fraud.

(Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said his administration was examining U.S. Treasury debt payments for possible fraud and suggested that the country's $36 trillion debt load might not be that high. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said administration officials who have been combing through payment records in an effort to identify wasteful spending have turned their attention to the debt payments that play a central role in the global financial system. "We're even looking at Treasuries," Trump said.