Consumer confidence slumps in February with biggest monthly drop in nearly 4 years

Published On Feb 25, 2025, 12:20 PM

Consumer confidence in the U.S. saw a significant decline in February, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping to 98.3, which is the lowest level since June 2024 and lower than expected by analysts. This decrease marks the largest drop in consumer confidence since August 2021 and indicates rising concerns over inflation and tariffs. Expectations for inflation rose sharply from 5.2% to 6% over the next year, leading to increased pessimism among consumers about future economic conditions, particularly impacting those aged 35 to 55. Additionally, consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending as they expect higher prices due to potentially increased tariffs on goods, which could lead to depressed retail sales in the near term.

Stock Forecasts

XLY

Negative

Given the downturn in consumer confidence and the rising inflation expectations, coupled with consumers' increasing anxieties about future economic prospects and probable tariff hikes, it is likely that there will be a negative impact on consumer spending. Consequently, companies heavily reliant on consumer discretionary spending may see reduced revenues.

XLP

Positive

Conversely, companies involved in defense or those with essential products, such as food or household goods, could benefit from consumers shifting their spending habits towards staples due to rising concerns over inflation and economic uncertainty. The SPDR S&P Food & Beverage ETF (XLP) may experience a positive uptick as consumers prioritize essential goods.

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