February CPI report expected to show inflation moderated as 'stagflation' fears rise
Published On Mar 11, 2025, 2:44 PM
The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a moderation in inflation, with an expected annual inflation rate of 2.9%, down from January's 3%. Monthly increases are projected to rise 0.3%, lower than January's 0.5%. In addition, core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 3.2% annually and 0.3% monthly. The Federal Reserve is cautious about potential delays in cutting interest rates, highlighting that inflation pressures might persist, raising concerns over the possibility of stagflation, defined by slow growth, persistent inflation, and rising unemployment.
Stock Forecasts
SPY
Positive
Given the potential for moderated inflation data, investors may shift focus to industries that could benefit from lower inflation pressures and potential outcomes from Federal Reserve monetary policy changes. Stocks within sectors that historically fare well amid easing inflation may rise, while those heavily reliant on discretionary spending could face headwinds.
XLY
Negative
Conversely, if the inflation moderation is viewed as insufficient to bolster economic growth, sectors tied closely to economic expansion may falter. Stagflation fears could also place downward pressure on cyclical stocks that thrive in robust economic conditions.
Related News
Stock futures are little changed as key consumer inflation report looms: Live updates
Mar 11, 2025, 6:05 PM
Uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have sent the major averages on a roller-coaster ride and spurred worries about the U.S. economy.
Stock market today: Dow falls, Nasdaq pops as Trump's latest tariff moves spark volatile trading
Mar 11, 2025, 2:40 PM
Stock markets built on the latest steep losses driven by recession fears.
Investors Thought They Had Trump Figured Out. They Were Wrong.
Mar 11, 2025, 3:06 PM
On Tuesday, President Trump sent markets into another tailspin by announcing additional tariffs on Canada, suggesting a falling stock market is no longer the bulwark investors had hoped.