Rate cut is the start of a new Fed era. What comes next?

Published On Sep 16, 2024, 4:00 AM

The Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, lowering them from 5.25%-5.5% to 5.0%-5.25%. This decision marks the end of an aggressive inflation-fighting campaign. Investors speculate about the extent of the cut, with most expecting a 25 basis point cut—though some anticipate a deeper 50 basis point reduction. The overall outlook suggests that the Fed may continue with a series of rate cuts over the next couple of years, which would lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses alike. Inflation is reportedly decreasing, and there's a focus on the employment market, with jobs growth slowing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks will guide expectations on future cuts and economic conditions, as many believe there is still a risk of recession due to economic vulnerabilities.

Stock Forecasts

Lower interest rates are likely to stimulate economic activity, which may boost sectors that benefit from lower borrowing costs, such as consumer discretionary and certain financial services. This change could also positively impact sectors reliant on consumer spending and borrowing, like housing and automobiles.

Financial institutions may initially face pressure on their margins with falling rates, but they could be supported by increased lending activity as borrowing costs decrease. This could lead to a more stable outlook for additional lending in a growing economy.

ETFs like TLT, which focus on long-term treasuries, may benefit from rate cuts as investors seek safer assets, leading to appreciation in bond prices.

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