Stock market expert compares 2024 election to tumultuous time when the challenger prevailed over incumbent

Published On Oct 31, 2024, 7:29 AM

CFRA Research's chief strategist, Sam Stovall, draws parallels between the upcoming 2024 elections and the 1968 elections. He notes that the market has risen over 5% since July 31, historically favoring the incumbent party's re-election chances. However, he highlights the unique conditions of the current cycle, such as dissatisfaction with inflation and immigration issues, which could lead to a challenger victory, similar to the outcome in 1968. A Bloomberg survey indicates that respondents believe a Trump win could accelerate the current market rally, while a Harris win might hinder it. The election remains highly competitive, focusing on key swing states.

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Should Trump win the election, the market is likely to continue its rally, benefitting sectors and stocks that favor conservative economic policies. Conversely, a Harris win may lead to market uncertainty and potentially steep declines due to anticipated regulatory changes.

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