Traders eye half-point Fed cut as deadline nears

Published On Sep 13, 2024, 5:02 AM

Traders are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by half a percentage point at their upcoming meeting, a significant rise from just 4% probability earlier this week to 40%. This shift follows new reports indicating Fed policymakers are contemplating a larger cut than previously thought. The anticipation is affecting various markets, with government bonds rallying, small-cap stocks advancing, and the US dollar weakening. The discussion regarding rate cuts has heightened volatility in the markets as traders adjust their positions ahead of the Fed's decision.

Stock Forecasts

The potential for a half-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve primarily benefits sensitive financial sectors like banks and consumer finance companies due to lower borrowing costs. Additionally, small-cap stocks, which typically outperform in a low-rate environment, could see positive movements. Investment in bond ETFs may also be advantageous as yields are likely to decrease with a rate cut, providing capital gains on bond prices.

In contrast, if the Fed opts for only a quarter-point reduction, it could result in market disappointment leading to corrections in equity markets and increased volatility. Large-cap stocks and value sectors may not perform as well under this scenario due to their relative sensitivity to interest rate changes. Therefore, avoiding exposure to high-debt companies or sectors might be wise until further signals from the Fed are given.

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