The optimism over US banks is about to be put to the test

Published On Jan 13, 2025, 4:00 AM

Investors are turning their attention to major US banks as they prepare to release their earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024. After a year of optimism following tax reforms and regulatory changes in the Trump administration, bank stocks have faced uncertainty in the face of rising interest rates and inflation. Although banks like JPMorgan Chase are expected to post record profits for the year, analysts predict a dip in fourth-quarter profits compared to the previous quarter. Market watchers are particularly interested in banks' outlooks for 2025, especially regarding interest rate policies under the new administration. Overall, while there is a bullish sentiment about the prospects for the banking sector, potential risks from inflation and interest rates could temper growth expectations.

Stock Forecasts

JPM

Positive

JPMorgan Chase is expected to deliver strong annual results, which might further boost investor confidence in the sector. However, if they report lower profits for Q4 compared to Q3, it could lead to a sell-off.

BAC

Positive

Bank of America is likely to follow a similar trend, reporting solid annual gains but facing expectations of Q4 dips. Their guidance for 2025 will be crucial for investor sentiment.

GS

Negative

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley may not meet market expectations fully after stellar past performances. If they show flat or declining Q4 profits, their shares might face downward pressure.

XLF

Positive

The broader Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) could be influenced positively if major banks report satisfactory annual results and positive outlooks despite the anticipated quarterly drop.

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